
Above: the dye bottle says fox,
the expression implies hedgehog.
“Learning How to Think”
- It’s so true! We professional pundits are totally incompetent! And I, knowing full well that absolutely nothing will endanger our job security, encourage you to hold us accountable!
‘Shorter’ concept created by Daniel Davies and perfected by Elton Beard. We are aware of all Internet traditions.™
MOAR: Kristof comes up with the most self-serving take on Isaiah Berlin I’ve ever seen:
The more famous experts did worse than unknown ones. That had to do with a fault in the media. Talent bookers for television shows and reporters tended to call up experts who provided strong, coherent points of view, who saw things in blacks and whites. People who shouted — like, yes, Jim Cramer!
Mr. Tetlock called experts such as these the “hedgehogs,” after a famous distinction by the late Sir Isaiah Berlin (my favorite philosopher) between hedgehogs and foxes. Hedgehogs tend to have a focused worldview, an ideological leaning, strong convictions; foxes are more cautious, more centrist, more likely to adjust their views, more pragmatic, more prone to self-doubt, more inclined to see complexity and nuance. And it turns out that while foxes don’t give great sound-bites, they are far more likely to get things right.
So hedgehogs are Manichean, loudmouth hacks like Jim Cramer; meanwhile, the foxes are sensible and centrist like… yes, like Nick Kristof. How conveeenient. True to his kind, the wishy-washy, tepid-toned Kristof believes that his compulsive need to seek “rational” middle ground (and it’s always a perceived, not objective, middle; i.e. not middle at all) is not itself an “ideological” bias nor is it corrupted by emotion. Of course he is wrong.
I too may be wrong, but as I learned it, the fox/hedgehog distinction wasn’t so much about temperament as about mentality and worldview. A hedgehog is a specialist whose mind is convergent: he sees things through a single prism, apt to have only a handful of maxims which he applies to every possible problem; his toolkit is limited. On the other hand, a fox is a generalist whose mind is divergent; he has many tools. Both may be shrill or cautious, fiery or restrained; both may or may not have principles, though a fox is better able to adapt many principles against or aside each other (and not always cynically). Contra Kristof, foxes can be just as ate-up with certitude as hedgehogs. And both animals, as it were, can be rigid or pragmatic, right or wrong.
Pistof wants to contrast himself with Jim Cramer. This no doubt pleases liberals, whose affection Kristof courts. But Cramer’s simply the bad guy of the season, and seasons change — indeed, have changed. Kristof’s bad guy could just as easily be a radical leftwinger (and therefore too “ideological”), with scary “strong convictions” outside the extremely narrow — and right-leaning — spectrum of received opinion Kristof stupidly puts himself squarely in the middle of. Caution doesn’t make one a fox; it makes one, by definition, conservative.