Fun times ahead

Terrific:

The United States has entered a recession that could be “substantially more severe” than recent ones, former National Bureau of Economic Research President Martin Feldstein said
Friday.

“The situation is very bad, the situation is getting worse, and the risks are that it could get very bad,” Feldstein said in a speech at the Futures Industry Association meeting in Boca Raton, Florida.

NBER is a private sector group that is considered the arbiter of U.S. business cycles.

It was only two weeks ago that Bush told us he didn’t think the economy was headed toward recession. The guy’s ability to be a weathervane for wrongness never ceases to amaze.

 

Comments: 65

 
 
 

Obviously a war with Iran is necessary.

 
 

Yep. The shit is really going to hit the fan.

Ladles and jellyspoons, see Bear, Stearns. Down 20.

Of course, it’s all Clinton’s fault.

 
Five of Diamonds
 

I’m liquidating my 401K and investing in fake sunglasses, buying a gun and moving to a compound in Montana. I’ll soon declare my own airspace.

 
 

Of course once the recession gets really rolling (right before the general election) all the wingers will be blaming it on the impending rout of republicans from the WH and both houses of congress.

 
 

Global depression, anyone?

Actually, some of the world may be spared our oncoming misery, since it seems a few countries are divesting themselves of the dollar.

 
 

I had the dubious fortune of the cat-bird seat, having worked in both mortgage and 401K over the last few years. I can honestly say I saw this mess coming a long time ago. I never understood why the higher-ups didn’t see it coming. Perhaps fortunately, I’m so dirt poor right now I quite literally have nothing to lose but my college loans and grants, which I’m living on while I go to school. I don’t envy people who are heavily invested in the system. Hard rain gonna fall.

 
 

Obviously it’s time for mo’ bigger better tax cuts!

 
 

Because it’s Friday, and I have a bottle of Jameson in my glove box, I’ll save GArY Ruppert some time and brain cells:

The economy (which is totally heterosexual and manly) is performing splendidly, but if it isn’t, It’s because the Bush Tax Cuts haven’t been given enough time to work by the cut and run Defeatocrats, who hope that the economy gets even worse (even though it is perfect), who are playing politics with teh tr00pz, national security, and the Heartland, USA, patriotism, and the economy.

 
 

The United States has entered a recession that could be “substantially more severe” than recent ones, former National Bureau of Economic Research President Martin Feldstein said
Friday.
“The situation is very anti-American, the situation is getting worse, and the risks are that it could get very anti-American,” Feldstein skill in a speech at the Futures Industry Association meeting in Boca Raton, the Heartland.
NBER is a private sector group that is considered the arbiter of allied communists people hate everything the US stands for. the American Way cycles. The government is not the solution.

 
Johnny Coelacanth
 

I’m pretty sure this economy is Bill Clinton’s fault. After all, countless republicans told me that the thriving economy circa 1998 was the result of Ronald Reagan’s economic policies.

 
 

the American Way cycles.

It usually follows the unicycling bear in the Main Street parade.

 
 

I’m more partial to the naked cyclists.

 
 

Bush gave a little pep talk this morning. NYT says:

President Bush acknowledged Friday that the nation’s economy was going through troubled times, but cautioned against overreacting to current problems, saying such actions could cause longer-term problems. Speaking at the Economic Club of New York, Mr. Bush said “in a free market economy there will be good times and bad times” and acknowledged “we’re going through a hard time.”…..Mr. Bush said the economic stimulus package adopted recently by Congress, which includes incentives for investments by business and cash payments for households, would start taking effect by the second quarter of this year and have a greater impact in the third. “The challenge is not to do anything foolish in the meantime,” he said……Saying “these are uncertain times.” Mr. Bush once again called on Congress to make the tax cuts enacted early in his term permanent to add stability to the economy.

Because god knows we wouldn’t want to do anything foolish.

 
 

You know, I’ve been meaning to get my antidepressant regimen adjusted. This is as good a time as any, I guess.

Bender: I got retirement plans. I’m gonna switch my on/off switch to off.

 
 

The banks created this mess with their sub-prime lending and over reliance on FICO scores. The Fed is putting up half of its available assets to try and minimize the blow but the effects won’t be seen for months and likely won’t roll all the way down the hill to the consumer/borrower. It is going to be bad times ahead for awhile.

Edmund Phelps blames “neo-neoclassical” economists and the system’s inability to react to an unpredictable impact (like sub-prime loans).

 
 

Now, wait. There’s an upside to this!

Every time Bush declares that something is fine, or that he has confidence in it, it goes to hell. Is there some way we can get him to express confidence in McCain?

 
 

The government is not the solution? Who’s paying to bail out Bear, Stearns? Oh right, J.P. Morgan…but wait:

The Fed has promised Bear Stearns savior JP Morgan (JPM) that it will guarantee the value of whatever crap Bear has piled onto its balance sheet.

See, the government IS the solution whenever the problem is the tycoon class needs more cash.

Bushler sez: “in a free market economy there will be good times and bad times”

My dear departed mom used to say: Socialism for the rich, and capitalism for the poor.

 
Johnny Coelacanth
 

” “we’re going through a hard time.””

Yeah, I imagine they’re down to eating caviar off of the bodies of naked slaves only six nights a week at Halliburton. Things are tough all over. As a show of solidarity, Exxon executives have pledged to use only a single hundred dollar bill to light their cigars.

 
 

As a show of solidarity, Exxon executives have pledged to use only a single hundred dollar bill to light their cigars.

Many prominent politicians will be forced to downgrade to escorts with only a six-diamond rating.

 
 

… former National Bureau of Economic Research President Martin Feldstein…

Isn’t this the same think tank that you were making fun of the other day for claiming that anti-war messages on the media ‘embolden’ the Iraqi insurgents?

 
Johnny Coelacanth
 

And David Vitter has vowed to implement washable diapers into his “dates” with prostitutes.

 
 

So Candy, If you were musing about it, what would you muse to those of us with just barely enough retirement money in 401Ks?

My dad died about 1.5 years ago and there was a little bit of money left after he’d scraped and saved all his life (frugal didn’t begin to describe him). I put his money into my own 401K and now I’m regretting having done that to the little nest egg he’d built up.

I’m already shopping for a box and a nice bridge to live under in a few years.

 
 

Now, see, if they would’ve listened to me, I coulda had Chuck Norris kick this impending depression upside the head and sent it back to Belgium. Or Australia. Or France

 
 

Obviously, this is good news for Republicans.

 
 

Biography of Martin Feldstein.

In 2005, Feldstein was widely considered a leading candidate to succeed chairman Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. This was in part due to his prominence in the Reagan administration and his position as an economic advisor for the Bush presidential campaign.

But I believe he’s right to say we are already in a recession. Because by definition, Bush is wrong.

 
 

Yes, but Alqaeda is in Iraq so we can fight them there instead of on Wall Street.
Besides, Dear Leader loves the smell of romance in the morning.
Bush: I’m ‘envious’ of troops on ‘romantic’ front lines.

 
 

See, the government IS the solution whenever the problem is the tycoon class needs more cash.

“I am changing my name to Chrysler…”

 
 

gbear, I’d hate to advise anyone at this point. The euro is doing well . . . so far. I’m starting to think buying as much gold as one can afford and burying it in a big steel box in the back yard is the smart course.

Seriously, i saw some scary things in the ol’ 401K dept at Big Financial Group Corp. At one point, some V.P. said in a meeting that the average 401K had $15,000 in it. That’s not a retirement fund. That isn’t even a cushion against a short term disability. And people were taking out hardship withdrawals and loans from their 401Ks like crazy.

I’m studyin’ to be a paralegal. Right now the market’s good for paralegals – better than it is for new lawyers – and I figure the country will always need legal professionals. And maybe somewhere in Europe there’s a job for someone who knows their way around American legal research . . . if I ever need it.

 
 

“Big Financial Group Corp” Hmmm, I’m going guess that would really be that Company that starts with a P and ends with a l and has rincipa in the middle?

Sure am glad they don’t have my 401K anymore.

 
 

I shifted almost all of my 401k assets into safer harbors at the first of the year. Right now, that’s looking like the best strategy out there, as the bottom has fallen out from under the places I had been keeping those funds. Last week, I checked out the investments where our savings used to be, and a chill ran down my spine. I’m glad I moved when I did.

We save pretty aggressively, and I’m thinking that’s a good policy to follow if the economy stays moribund.

 
 

See, the government IS the solution whenever the problem is the tycoon class needs more cash.

Bushler sez: “in a free market economy there will be good times and bad times”

My dear departed mom used to say: Socialism for the rich, and capitalism for the poor.

Exactly. Corporations appear to want to privatize their profits while nationalizing their losses.

 
 

It was only two weeks ago that Bush told us he didn’t think the economy was headed toward recession.

Strictly speaking, he was right – we were already in one.

 
 

I strongly recommend keeping large stocks of Gold, Ammunition, Cigarettes and Booze, as these are the things that will be in greatest demand in the coming meltdown. My suspicion is that mobility will be important, so consider acqiring or locating for future theft a small (250cc or less) dirt bike. You should be able to buy or steal small amounts of gasoline, so this will be a very good option.

Get a good ruck, and think about what you will need to carry, and what and how you will cache. Get a good topo map, and locate at least two nearby sources of water, streams, springs or reservoirs.

No matter what you do for personal weapons, get a decent short .22LR semi auto. .22LR is cheap and ubiquitous, and you will be safer and better fed with one.

If it goes to hell fast, you’ll be better off outdoors and out of the cities for a few weeks, unless the weather is really bad. The first few weeks are likely to be a spasm of looting, burning, killing and firefights as the police try for a while to put a lid on it. If it’s a real collapse, they will stop trying after a few weeks and try to look after their families.

Think about the skills that will be of value. If you can fix a generator, build a house, grow food, sew, those kinds of skills, you will be in greater demand and your life will consequently be worth much more than if you are a computer programmer or accountant.

You might have thought that it was wacky, paranoid tinfoil hat time to be thinking about what you’ll need to do, but look around today and decide if you might want to start putting some thoughts, notes and investments into how you’re going to survive a really bad time…

mikey

 
 

MileHi, you are too acute! (I thought I was being so cagey!) 🙂 Sadly, I have to say that they are probably one of the better companies out there to have your money with. A lot better than a couple of other companies I’ve worked for, particularly one that starts with C and ends with i and has it in the middle. At least, if I had stock in the P company, I’d feel fairly safe. They had the foresight to sell their mortgage branch to Citi way back before the mortgage crisis was even a cloud on the horizon.

That being said, saying they are better than Citi is damning with faint praise.

 
 

Candy, have you heard anything about those peer-to-peer loans companies where you can invest $500-$1000 or so at a ‘risk’ level of your choice and the money will be loaned to people who the regular banking systems won’t bother with? Kind of like the People’s banks in Africa only reset in America’s third-world. The ‘safe’ level return is about 7% which isn’t likely to outrun inflation, but it beats having your money get snatched up for some CEO’s parachute when the big boys tank.

 
 

No, I haven’t been paying much attention to that, or to anything financial these days much beyond reading Krugman or other articles that appear interesting, gbear. My partner follows that sort of thing more closely. I’ll have to ask him if he knows anything about it.

 
 

The Dow is at 8000.

http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/3941/djiaineuro031308cn4.png

Just sayin’…

Actually, there’s a story over at the great orange satan about it.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/14/112230/168

 
 

mikey,

If it’s a real collapse, they will stop trying after a few weeks

Did we learn nothing from Katrina? And that was a relatively localized disturbance. If the whole thing shits the bed, and in magnificent fashion, I’d give pretty fair odds that the cops would be the first ones out to the hunting lodge.

 
 

You know, mikey, I do understand that drive, or at least I used to. Probably I’m just a weaker specimen, because the last eighteen years of nobody at all actively trying to kill me personally have left me with the conclusion that I’m no longer willing to survive at all costs, assuming I ever was (There were always lines I drew, come to think of it).

If it goes that bad that fast, I’m just checking out. Which has the advantage of providing my partner with a few more options at that point as well.

 
 

Candy, I wrote down some names and addresses for the peer-to-peer groups, but it’s on my desk at work, and I’m at home. NPR interviewed the company’s CEO last week on Talk Of The Nation. Sounded very interesting and just subversive enough to be appealing.

 
 

If it goes that bad that fast, I’m just checking out.

I’m of that mind too. For the same reasons. Can’t add anything else without it sounding trite, but I’d rather go while watching the sun sparkle on Lake Superior than because some momentary lapse in my vigilance gave someone the opening to kill me for my truck or my jar of peanut butter. My instincts are hippy rather than warrior.

 
 

Well Candy–although DMS has a large # of financial companies–there’s only one that has half the city named after it–and its not Equitable anymore. A pretty easy assumption on my part. Plus, being a regulator helps…

I used to work for the one that starts with an I and ends with a G and had N in the middle. They’ve still got some of my money, but being Dutch, they’re pretty good at handling it.

I was meaning to tell you that I had a delicious Iowa chop–perfectly grilled on the old bar-b-que the other day. Now that’s some good dead pig!

 
 

The fact is, the recession rhetoric is pure class war to appeal to the greed of the non productive classes. Taxing the rich will only make things worse.

 
 

MileHi, I’m a bad iowan when it comes to meat. I haven’t willingly eaten a chop since I was a kid and me gram used to make me. LOL…

ING is one of the few big corps in DSM where I haven’t worked. Sigh . . . you know you’re from DSM when it’s easier to name the big companies you haven’t worked for than the ones you have.

That does sound interesting, gbear. I hope there is some way to protect your money. While I was still working at Principal I used to use the financial calculators for myself and laugh bitterly at how I was never, ever going to be able to retire.

If it comes to a meltdown the way mikey is describing, I’m going to go out and try to live in the woods. I think I might actually like that, and I actually have a lot of the requisite skills. If it comes to armed battle, I’m not sure I’m up for that. But steal a few cows, a horse, some chickens, and pack up some books? Actually, I could dig it. Whoever would think a former party girl like me would end up a survivalist? It will be worth a chuckle, at least..

 
 

Oh my–that’s not right! Bad, bad Iowan indeed. I miss the meats and the dairy. Oh for some AE small curd cottage cheese or french onion dip. Necture of the Gods, I say.

What’s really amusing is that I moved away from the insurance capital of the midwest only to get a job in insurance out here. Ah well, the weather and the scenery is better in the Centennial state.

Be careful if you end up in the woods, Candy–I hear there are pumas lurking there now!

 
 

Oh for some AE small curd cottage cheese or french onion dip. Necture of the Gods, I say.

Ha ha! When I was living in Washington the only food items I missed were AE dairy products and Tasty Tacos. Oh, how I love Tasty Tacos.

Do you do much interacting with Anthem BCBS? I know at least one of the survivors of the Seabury meltdown who wound up in Denver at Anthem.

I’m not scared of pumas. They’re are just big puddy tats.

 
 

I sure can’t type today.

 
 

Heck, I’d settle for a Taco John’s, much less Tasty Taco.

In short yes, I do. I can’t really say any more than that at the moment. Except everyone with any sense in jumping off that ship.

Puddy tats with sharp teef and long claws. Oh–I ascared myself!

 
 

In short yes, I do. I can’t really say any more than that at the moment. Except everyone with any sense in jumping off that ship.

yep.

Puddy tats with sharp teef and long claws. Oh–I ascared myself

I have a thirteen pound version of that asleep on my foot right now. She’s not going to take it well when I have to get up and leave. Cats are all monarchists.

 
 

I imagine she’ll be expecting you to bring her field mice when you’re living in the woods.

BTW–which woods are you thinking of? Walnut Woods (one of our old doobie smoking haunts)? Personally, I would probably head for the Ledges (if they’re still around) or down around Winterset.

 
 

Walnut Woods tends to be too floody. The Ledges would be cool. Or I might head down to the “hills ‘n hollers” of southeast Iowa, south of Ottumwa. I would be a real hillbilly!

We were supposed to be getting rain today, but the sun’s out and it’s gorgeous. I’ve gotta head out, run some errands, and hopefully get some Tasty Tacos! I’m a’jonesin’!

Have a great evening, MileHi!

 
 

I’m not scared of pumas. They’re are just big puddy tats.
You are emboldening the insurgents.

 
 

You too Candy! Have a taco for me…

 
 

a private sector group that is considered the arbiter of U.S. business cycles.
Why do US business cycles need arbitration? This sounds to me like private-sector interference.

 
 

Taxing the rich will only make things worse.

For once, Gary, you may be right. When the shit hits the fan this time, taxing them won’t help in the least. That’s why so many of us will be eating them. Have to put food on the table somehow, y’know.

RB? A recipie, perhaps?

 
 

Why do US business cycles need arbitration?

Looks to me like they need training wheels at this point.

 
 

Ray Charles’s Anteater Bagel

Ingredients:
1 teaspoon comfortable anteater, grated
1 jar young Gouda
1 stick eccentric raspberry
4 gallons weasel ear, toasted
7 pinches sage
1 ounce rosemary

Pick over the ingredients and discard excess mud. Place the anteater into a small bag. Combine the young Gouda with the raspberry over medium heat in a skillet. Drizzle resulting concoction over the anteater. Pickle – very mathematically – the weasel ear, sage, and the rosemary. Pound everything together. Abandon for 9 hours. Serves 15.

 
 

Dammit, I’ve been chasing the goddam eccentric raspberry around the house for two fucking hours.

Now it’s up on the roof, and it has taken off it’s pants and is doing some kind of interpretive dance.

I’m gonna give up on that one.

mikey

 
 

mikey –

To your “stock up” list, I’m adding coffee and Bic lighters.

BTW – being in Maine, I’m already out in the woods, kinda by default.

 
 

it has taken off it’s pants and is doing some kind of interpretive dance.
Mikey’s eccentric raspberry sounds like it’s been drinking my wormwood beer. If it is ranting about “he who pisseth against the wall”, you can be certain of it.

 
 

Hmmm… I’m starting to wonder if I should change my major to flint-knapping.

 
Arky "I just get these headaches" The Blasphemer
 

Mikey has already given some very sound advice so I’ll just add this:

If you are Hispanic or Middle Eastern or just “look” like one or both, watch your back.

Unless history is tired of repeating herself, more and more people will be looking for scape goats, instead of storming corporate headquarters.

If anyone stares at you for a while and then barks “Where you from?” make ready to kick his ass.

 
 

I can’t believe that America will go all Lord of the Flies. We already put up with stuff that every other wealthy country considers third world. We’ll just watch prices go higher while we move in with parents, get apartments, or sit in our unheated suburban homes. We’ll cheer the US’s latest military action, stop buying meat and milk, and watch tv and tell everyone else that we’re the greatest nation on earth.

 
 

I’m starting to wonder if I should change my major to flint-knapping.

You mean they have a course of study on how to professionally take the Flint children and hold them for ransom?

Oh.

OH!

Never mind….

mikey

 
 

Hey folks,

You may have noticed that the U.S. economy is headed for utter ruin. If you haven’t, then just let me be the first to mention it, and say that I believe the situation is deadly serious. To that end, I’ll be down in Houston on Monday, waiting for my bank to open at nine.

If you have any assets you wish to save from utter ruin (i.e. those that are denominated in $USD), then I would run, not walk, to the following web sites:

http://www.merkfund.com/fund/overview/facts.html

http://www.bullionvault.com/

http://www.everbank.com/001WorldCurrency.aspx?LinkID=Breadcrumb

You might also want to look into small amounts of physical gold/silver. Preferably from a shop/seller that doesn’t want to know your name.

Not affiliated with any of the above, by the way. And I don’t know that any of them constitute “magic bullets” against what is coming. They are simply what I’ve decided to risk my own meager resources on. And it may be that next week will be the very last chance any of us gets to try to save him/herself. I think life in this country is about to get very unpleasant, more than most people are capable of guessing at this point.

Not trying to be a drama queen here, or imply that you haven’t seen this coming and taken steps, etc. Just mentioning it now because I feel obligated to do so. I’ve gotten a lot from reading you guys, and the S/N community seems like a pretty good bunch.

Don’t know what else to say. “Happy landings,” is as good as anything, I suppose.

And, of course, good luck.

 
 

(comments are closed)