McArdle: “It Is Like I Was Just Saying”

Episode 9.73 x 10^16 (in a series of jabibbity-squillion).

So long, farewell, auf wiedersehn goodbye . . .
18 Oct 2007 03:21 pm

Forgetting that the entire industrialized world except for the US has nationalized health care, the best source of data on nationalized health care is a famous 1982 RAND Corporation study.*

It shows that if you make health care free, people will use more health care without getting healthier.

However, Alex Tabarrok points to a major flaw in the study: People with serious illnesses seem to have dropped out of the program, skewing the results.

This is certainly important, and it seems to me that it is a problem with medical studies in general.

Why can’t states run single payer systems?
18 Oct 2007 03:53 pm

Ezra avoids the obvious: State health care programs all fail because they are expensive.

Why are they expensive? As the [mumble mumble] evidence seems to show, if you make health care free, people will just use more health care. And, uh, costs will shoot through the roof, is why.

Oof
18 Oct 2007 04:14 pm

Whoah Nellie, check out this correction that the AP ran, following a misapplication of statistical health care data.

Update: Good discussion going on in comments as to whether this poke at McArdle is fair. Should I issue a correction (y/n)?


* Not the 2006 one with different findings, but the good old 1982 one.

 

Comments: 61

 
 
 

I feel sick.

 
 

“The gold standard of health insurance studies” is 25 years old? Gee. I wonder if anything in health insurance/health care has changed at all in the past quarter-century.

Historically, progressive movements evoke the greatest hysteria and most desperate rhetoric from traditionalists at the point when they realize their cause is lost. Universal health care in the US will happen, despite the bitterest and stupidest of the blowhards still out there bleating their bullshit and pulling useless stats and studies out of their asses.

 
 

Oh, dear.

I actually went over there, and the post Gavski Luv mercifully skipped is even more painful.

 
 

…or the US may be too bankrupt to implement it by that time, and the health care systems will collapse and people will die of cancer at astronomically faster rates.

 
 

Why can’t states run individual militias? Surely we could coordinate 50 fighting forces in Iraq as well as we’re coordinating the socialist nightmare we’ve got. Besides, with this big army thing sitting there so big, and not requiring user fees, makes people use the army more, driving up our costs.

And why can’t each state have its own intelligence agency? Glibertarian minds want to know!

Each state should approve its own medicines and foodstuffs too. No birth control south of the Mason-Dixon!

 
 

Uh, thanks Bistroist.

People in Israel have a certain level of solidarity assumed, and are in a high-stakes battle for the lowest cost solution

Yeah, it’s all about the ducats with those Jews.

 
Sadly, Cambridgeport
 

I’d love to pile on Megs, but I don’t think that you are being fair here. First, she is actually debunking a study that a lot of her ideological kin use to justify unconscionable policies. As far as libertarians and conservatives go, this qualifies as an independent streak.

Second, she is alerting her readers that the “health doesn’t improve” aspect of the “free healthcare doesn’t work” mantra has been exploded. Her first post doesn’t say anything about whether “costs will rise”, and the Rand study isn’t the only one that claims that. She doesn’t even quote the Rand study when claiming that “costs will rise” in the second post, she mentions more recent anecdote from Tennessee. It is possible for one aspect of a study to be completely, utterly bogus, while other parts still reflect reality.

Nobody is claiming that providing free, unrestricted health care, without quotas won’t drive up costs. I mean, you would hope that it would drive up costs at least somewhat, because otherwise it would mean that the previously uninsured still aren’t getting health. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t have universal health care or that it isn’t worth the cost. And IMHO, she is right that the states can’t afford it without federal help. For one thing, states can’t print money or run endless deficits.

Finally, she is correct that 0.9 abortions/woman does not mean that 9/10 women have abortions.

I hate to say it, but I’m with Meganstein here. Broken clocks, etc.

 
 

I mean, you would hope that it would drive up costs at least somewhat, because otherwise it would mean that the previously uninsured still aren’t getting health.

That’s not necessarily true: those uninsured people might be using expensive emergency room care now for what could be taken care of with less expensive preventive care if it were available to them. A well-thought-out, well-implemented system might cost a lot less, especially considering we already pay the most for the 37th best health system, per WHO.

 
Sadly, Cambridgeport
 

Yeah the wandering free writing on whatever ideas pop into her pretty little head about Israel and newspapers and such is SO classic McArdle

Does she realize that all this doodling is what we call “pre-writing”? You should check your random impressions against a few facts before shouting “Finished!” and running out in the yard to see if the ice cream truck is here yet. Please, please, please, don’t try to write a book.

 
 

we already pay the most for the 37th best health system, per WHO

That’s the number-one bestest non-pinko-commie-based health system to you, missy!

 
Sadly, Cambridgeport
 

we already pay the most for the 37th best health system, per WHO

Yeah but that couldn’t possibly have anything to do with private insurers. It must be too much regulation or something.

 
Trilateral Chairman
 

Megan is right to note that selective dropout is an important issue, but some people are saying that RAND actually took it into account.

It would be nice if she cited more evidence for her second point, but I don’t think it’s obviously insane.

And that really is a hell of a correction by the AP, which made one or more very very bad statistical errors (they confused averages with frequencies, and I *think* they may have failed to weight the average properly).

 
 

Second, she is alerting her readers that the “health doesn’t improve” aspect of the “free healthcare doesn’t work” mantra has been exploded. Her first post doesn’t say anything about whether “costs will rise”, and the Rand study isn’t the only one that claims that. She doesn’t even quote the Rand study when claiming that “costs will rise” in the second post, she mentions more recent anecdote from Tennessee. It is possible for one aspect of a study to be completely, utterly bogus, while other parts still reflect reality.

Well, she’s still claiming that unless health care is rationed, individual people will just consume more of it, driving costs up.

What’s missing is any analysis as to whether this is true. There’s no evidence shown that the Tennessee case has anything to do with increased consumption of health care by individual people.

Also missing is any notion of unfilled need that such programs may be filling. It seems unavoidably likely that in programs such as TennCare, people who’d previously had inadequate or no health care had entered the system — that, basically, a need existed for higher average levels of medical care.

I know I was vague before, but does that make sense?

 
 

Does she realize that all this doodling is what we call “pre-writing”?

This is one of the problems at hand, no? Pre-writing, brainstorming, unstructured and often rambling conversation—these are hoisted out and presented as quality content.

A very small but representative example of this: In the “America’s irritating WASP obsession” segment of the latest McArdle-Yglesias Bloggingheads TV episode, the two discuss the TV program “Gossip Girl.” After about 4 minutes of talk about the show and its wider significance in U.S. culture, we get this (at 4:07 of 7:40):

McArdle: And tell me if this actually happens in the show, because unfortunately I haven’t watched it yet.

She is, nonetheless, quite comfortable analyzing and debating it. And Yglesias, for his part, says nothing of the fact that she hasn’t seen the show.

Dog will hunt.

 
 

Pick on her as much as you want without apology, Gav. Just refrain from doing it every single day, please!

 
 

Listening to wingnuts talk about health care is like…analogies just fail me, but I usually end up feeling nauseous.

Some terms of the discussion seem simple enough – when you get sick, you want to get better, and sometimes you need a little help. Or a lot.

But there’s plenty more about the tangle of issues that can’t be dumbed down into the simple slogans that teh wingnuts seem to prefer, though that doesn’t stop them from doing it anyway.

There’re matters of access, financing, policy, and epidemiology; the complexities of human anatomy, pathophysiology, and drug biochemistry; moral contraditions and dilemnas – all colored by the inescapable fact that whenever we talk about health, we’re talking about human lives – our lives – and not widgets.

Or about a country too many thousands of miles away for most people to give two shits about, except in the abstract, if at all.

I’m glad the subject is being dragged to the forefront, but I’m not looking forward to how the wingnuts will degrade the dialogue.

Ugh. Excuse me while I dry-heave for a few minutes.

 
 

Pick on her as much as you want without apology, Gav. Just refrain from doing it every single day, please!

One of these sentences is not like the other.

 
 

Rationing! Doodle-bean is trying to ration the picking! THIS IS JUST WHAT THEY SAID WOULD HAPPEN! Why oh why did I vote for the nationalized, single-payer picking plan!

 
 

update: n

You”re picking on her, but I don’t think you’re seriously misrepresenting her. No need for a correction.

 
 

Rightwingsnarkle said,

October 19, 2007 at 18:28

Listening to wingnuts talk about health care is like…analogies just fail me, but I usually end up feeling nauseous.

…is like listening to the Podhoretzs, Kristols, and Kagans lecture about toughness and warfare?

 
Sadly, Cambridgeport
 

Thanks, Gavin, great points.

I guess I sympathize with her second post because her main point seems (seems!) to be that the burden of health care shouldn’t be pushed off on the states. You are right that the jump in costs can’t be assumed, but it is a possibility that should be taken seriously.

Anyway, I’m not saying that her posts are particularly well-constructed, or enlightening, or even useful; I just didn’t see anything overly outrageous or contradictory in them. I probably shouldn’t waste the benefit of the doubt. And you would think that she would look for a recent study for her “gold standard”

 
 

I dunno if a correction is order because I don’t read what’s up there as untrue. SC doesn’t say anything I think is untrue either, but I believe he’s applying far more thought than McAddled is to what she writes.

Why not elevate SC’s comment?

 
 

Should I issue a correction (y/n)?

(y/n)

I think the update pointing readers to the comments is sufficient. The inquistive will follow the discussion and see your clarification, among other things.

 
 

Elevate like how? Link to it or add it in an update?

 
 

Here’s my correction to my previous comment:

(y/n) (y/n)

P.S. What’s the underline tag? I tried “u” and it didn’t work.

 
 

Elevate like how? Link to it or add it in an update?

I dunno, I was just doing geek-speak. What J— said was good, but if it was Brad he’d be able to photoshop it onto a pedestal and make it look super-cool.

 
 

[glares at Bubba and growls]

 
 

Listening to wingnuts talk about health care is like…

Booger-eating Skinheads denying the Holocaust?

 
 

Listening to wingnuts talk about health care is like…

… hearing a fart underwater?

 
 

Listening to wingnuts talk about health care is like…

listening to winguts talk about any other subject they don’t know shit about: depressing and stroke-inducingly angering at the same time.

 
 

As an well-qualified observer, I can say Megan’s work has actually been getting worse. Of late, she’s been outright racist, she’s asked why there’s any reason for the gubbermint to provide childcare (at the bottom) she called those of us who like to rag on her obsessional critics who are probably motivated by misogyny, and, well, she’s written tons of other stupid shit.
Lady needs a sammich, bad, Gavin.

 
 

Oy. Typo two words in. Megan’s influence is pervasive.

 
 

Listening to wingnuts talk about health care is like…

Listening to Dan Riehl opine about intellectual honesty.

 
 

Appalling Ledes R Us

Internet pedophile suspect arrested in Thailand
By Seth Mydans
Published: October 19, 2007

BANGKOK: At first, on the Internet, he was just a swirly face, something akin to a large multicolored lollipop that a man might give to a little boy.

 
 

Europe: Hey, look at our invention, the round wheel !!!

U.S.: We don’t need your steenkin’ round wheel. Our square wheel is far superior !!!!

 
 

At first, on the Internet, he was just a swirly face, something akin to a large multicolored lollipop that a man might give to a little boy.

Someone should enter Mr. Mydans in the Bulwer-Lytton contest for that one.

 
Trilateral Chairman
 

Someone should enter Mr. Mydans in the Bulwer-Lytton contest for that one.

Yes–and in the meantime, have the editor flogged for incompetence. All the guy had to do was cross out the sentence and write a firm “NO” in the margin.

 
 

Yes–and in the meantime, have the editor flogged for incompetence. All the guy had to do was cross out the sentence and write a firm “NO” in the margin.

Well, if it’s anything like my workplace, chances are the editor scratched it out, the writer complained and showed it to a bunch of superiors of inappropriate expertise, the superiors liked it, and the sentence remained. Then the editor sighed and went home to drink beer.

 
 

This INTERPOL press release (10/8/07) includes the swirly face photo in question.

 
 

Dear S,N!,
I’m disappointed in you. Jonah changed the title of his book, again, and you don’t mention it?
Tsktsk.

 
 

Did too! DA linked to a thing on it!

 
 

Calendar entry for 8 jan 08:

Ridicule Jonah Goldberg

Note: once again for his infinitely indefinitely delayed seminal masterpiece. Make sure to check the title again, probably will be on ninth or tenth version by then.

 
 

And, as I believe Mr. Leonard Pierce pointed out yesterday regarding The Pantload’s book’s constantly changing subtitle, it will likely change again, since Mussolini was neither American nor leftist.

 
 

D’oh.
Been too busy worrying over what to do about a female than paying proper attention. Sorry, DA n S,N!

 
 

Mussolini was neither American nor leftist.

Also, Liberal Fascism: The Secret History of the American Left, From Mussolini to the Politics of Meaning spans the gamut of factors from M to P.

 
 

Oh, geez. It’s, like, obvious n shite.
I blame wimmin, and my obvious hatred of them, as it’s clearly not my fault I completely overlooked it.

 
 

Elevate like how? Link to it or add it in an update?

Delete it and publish his home address, phone number, junior high school transcripts, and shoe size! Accuse him of hating the troops and release a colony of rabid squirrels into his living room! Camp out on his lawn and send him insulting illiterate emails! Attack! Attack! Attack!

Jeez. Some Citizen Journalist you are not to know this stuff.

 
 

Doughy Pantload Joy
by J. Goldberg
(To the tune of My Favorite Things from The Sound of Music)

Cheetos and moonpies
With mountain dew shooters
Pointlessly flirting
With servers at Hooters
Making up shit
That I know isn’t true
And relying on Mom
When the mortgage is due!

Right-wing blogger!
Bandwidth hogger!
Batshit crazy too!
Just parrot whatever Rush says on the air
Then you can become one tooooo!

 
Sadly, Cambridgeport
 

I just had to laugh at some of the tags for Jonah’s alleged book. Top vote-getters:

propaganda (39)
missed deadlines (27)
fairytales for simple people (26)
wingnut welfare (26)
unintentional comedy (23)
banged out by howler monkeys (21)
what a boat load of crap (19)
attend to luciannes bunions (16)
chickenhawk (14)
waste of a good tree (3)

I would say that about 98% are mocking, but it is hard to tell. For example, is “waste of a good tree” a liberal or a supporter who is cautiously optimistic that it will go to press? Is “libbruls are stoopid” unintentional self-parody? What about the “liberal censorship” charge or “BDS”?

It’s like sitting in an auditorium full of hundreds of laughing people and worrying about the guy flailing his arms in front of you. Is he sick? Is he trying to laugh too? Has something upset him?

 
 

You know the best way Ms. McArdle could get her revenge? She could learn to be a good writer, learn about intellectual honesty, learn to avoid logical fallacies, learn to do research, and put out quality articles that make sense in a consistent and logical manner.

That would show us.

But it appears Ms. McArdle has decided that sounds like a lot of work, and has decided playing “Little Miss Martyr” is more suited to her meagre abilities.

Everybody, pull over to the the side! Here comes the WAHMBULANCE!

 
Trilateral Chairman
 

From the book description:

Contrary to what most people think, the Nazis were ardent socialists (hence the term “National socialism”).

I wonder if Jonah has any idea that this little assertion has been kicked around, oh, forever by lunatics of all every stripe, including the Nazis themselves. (Try googling for the phrase “the Nazis were socialists” and see what you get.) It’s taken about as seriously as the claim that there is no law requiring the payment of income tax. Half of me thinks that he’s as clueless as usual, and the other half of me thinks that he lifted the thesis off some website somewhere and is just hoping nobody will catch him on it.

It’s going to be fun when the book comes out, though, because I doubt that old Jonah has the mental wattage to handle the obvious criticisms.
His argument, as far as I can tell, is that some liberal policies are similar to some Nazi policies. Well, yeah–since the Nazis tried to control just about everything, then any form of government will have something in common with Nazism. This does not mean that every possible government shares intellectual roots with fascism (and if it did, well, it wouldn’t be terribly interesting).

 
 

but if it was Brad he’d be able to photoshop it onto a pedestal and make it look super-cool.

I think R. Bubba made Gavin cry.

 
 

Righteous Bubba’s just speaking truth to power.

 
Smiling Mortician
 

Or truthiness to power . . . iness.

 
 

I know we’ve moved on, but I’m late to the party, as usual. However, McArdle should not hold up TennCare as an example of a single-payer system (which is what Ezra was talking about, no?), or as an example of people using the health care system more if it’s free. TennCare became so expensive because it dealt with many, many insurers, and each one tried to milk the system for as much as it could. It wasn’t that health care per se became more expensive. Basically, Tennessee went from a single-payer system (Medicaid) to a third-party payer system, so all the insurance cos. had to get their share of the pie. The insured actually ended up getting less medical care, because now they had a third party telling them they didn’t need it.

 
 

Delete it and publish his home address, phone number, junior high school transcripts, and shoe size! Accuse him of hating the troops and release a colony of rabid squirrels into his living room! Camp out on his lawn and send him insulting illiterate emails! Attack! Attack! Attack!

Ooooh! Ooooh! But is it time to release the Bengal cat horde? They’ve been sharpening their claws (painting them, too) and practicing yakking up huge digusting hairballs on demand. I think they’re ready.

And any one of those twenty pound males could easily just totally RUIN a person’s bike commute to ‘work.’ Not they would because that would be wrong, and we’ve talked about doing things that are wrong, haven’t we, Bengal Cat Horde? *Bengal cats roll eyes, examine newly painted claws, grumble amongst themselves, exchange best practices of rabid skwerl evisceration*

Well, I think they’re as ready as they’ll ever be. As long as the required action does not occur during union-regulated Nap Periods, we should be good to go. Oh, and meal times are bad, too. And when we’re honing our killing skills on Teh Flying Toy–that’s not a good time. Seriously, though: if someone drops a bouncy jingle ball in here, I’m afraid we’re going to lose all unit cohesion and effectiveness. So don’t even jingle your keys while you’re thinking, OK?

 
 

Listening to wingnuts talk about health care is like…

… listening to my dog whine while I blog. He can’t read, he wouldn’t care about Teh Issues if he *could* read, and meanwhile, there are stinks to sniff, shiny stuff to run after, and disgusting concoctions (some of them organic!) to eat and puke and re-eat…

I just wish Regnery would give my dog a large advance on his book, Boo, Long Word Stuff! Yay, Barking at Squirrels, Falling Leaves, and Heavily Loaded Trucks!! : Why Moonbats’ Obsession with “Reality” Leaves Them Incapable of Appreciating the IslamoImmigrantFascist Terrorist Threat Against America!!! I would even ghostwrite said book, if the advance were large enough, and it would be every bit as logical as anything that’s ever appeared under Jonah’s name, plus a lot better spelled.

 
 

I wonder if Jonah has any idea that this little assertion has been kicked around, oh, forever by lunatics of all every stripe, including the Nazis themselves. (Try googling for the phrase “the Nazis were socialists” and see what you get.) It’s taken about as seriously as the claim that there is no law requiring the payment of income tax. Half of me thinks that he’s as clueless as usual, and the other half of me thinks that he lifted the thesis off some website somewhere and is just hoping nobody will catch him on it.

This is like Christmas, my birthday, and St. Patrick’s day all rolled up into one for me! Jonah is really going to try to make the argument that the Nazis were socialists? Like I said before, anyone impressed by this argument is an adult who still finds the joke “If olive oil is made from olives, what is baby oil made from” to be exceptionally funny.

 
Typical Republican
 

“If olive oil is made from olives, what is baby oil made from”

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

Of course liberals don’t think it’s funny because they have no sense of humor. You don’t get Mallard Fillmore, which is as funny as my drinking buddy Jake who gets really drunk and repeats Rush Limbaugh’s jokes.

Liberals. Hmf.

 
 

Who wooda thought Megan knew any Cheap Trick lyrics?

 
 

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