How Amazing Are the Detroit Tigers This Year?
Quick baseball post below the fold…
What makes the 2006 Tigers so damn incredible is where they were a mere three years ago. In 2003, they lost 119 games. Even if you don’t know baseball very well, I think you can appreciate that losing 119 games is very, very bad. The Tigers also had a team ERA of 5.30 (bad) and a team OPS of .675 (really fucking bad) and were only one loss away from matching the record of the 1962 Mets, who are widely considered the worst team ever.
Fast forward to today, when they have the best record in the major leagues, they have an OPS of .788, and an ERA of 3.70. I can only think of two other franchises in history who have gone through this kind of rapid transformation: the 1969 Mets and the 1991 Braves. Both of those franchises had immensely talented young starting pitchers who matured at the same time, just like what Detroit has right now. The Mets had Seaver and Koosman, the Braves had Glavine, Smoltz and Avery, and the Tigers have Verlander and Bonderman (I suppose you could make a similar case for the Zito-Hudson-Mulder Oakland A’s in the early part of the decade, but that transformation was far more gradual).
And like the Braves* and the Mets before them, I think the Tigers have a terrific shot to win the whole thing this year. The only team that has a realistic chance of stopping them is the Twinkees**, who have a terrifying rotation fronted by the two best pitchers in the American League, Liriano and Santana.
*The Braves lost in the World Series to a vastly inferior Twins team that year, but you get my point…
**I would say the Red Sox as well, but if we win the division and Minnesota wins the wild card, that means we get to face Santana and Liriano in the five-game series. Suffice to say, I do not like those odds.
I’m sorry, I’m so ignorant of these things but isn’t the best way to determine the better team is to have them play one another in, say, a best-of-seven series? And shouldn’t the winner of such a series be the superior team? So weren’t the 1991 Twins better than the 1991 Braves?
Or is the championship decided in some other way these days? Sorry, I haven’t really followed baseball since Jack Morris pitched 10 shutout innings 15 years ago….
If the Twins make the playoffs, you could make a strong case for Liriano as not just Rookie of the Year, or Cy Young award winner, but MVP. Beyond him and Santana, the rest of their rotation is shaky at best, and despite a good team BA and OPS, they rank 8th in the league in runs scored. Since the Twins inserted him into the rotation they’re something like 42-17. However, the Tigers young pitching is formidable, and they have a solid power-hitting lineup. I’m hoping the Twins stay competetive. It’s looking like a fun pennant race if they do.
The main problem with the Tigers taking it all this year is the fact that they have had trouble with all of the division leaders. Neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox have had much problem with them this season. Also, while they are a very good team and vastly improved, their record may be inflated by playing a lot of games against the woeful Indians and Royals.
Great post, and very true. Living in an AL Central town, I saw a lot of Tigers games and even in 04 you could tell they were a little fiesty. I’m not at all surprised that they’re good now, but I’m shocked they’re this good this quick.
However, it is still July, and evne though they stink now, but I don’t think the White Sox will stay down for long, making the Central/WC race even more intriguing. (Though the Cubs’ fan in me hopes they continue the downward spiral…)
Oh, and the ’91 Twins were not vastly inferior to the Braves. The two teams were very evenly matched, though I know that most people will say that the Twins only won because of the Dome field advantage. The ’87 Twins World Series team on the other hand…
I’m sorry, I’m so ignorant of these things but isn’t the best way to determine the better team is to have them play one another in, say, a best-of-seven series? And shouldn’t the winner of such a series be the superior team? So weren’t the 1991 Twins better than the 1991 Braves?
Not really. More than most sports, baseball involves a lot of luck.
Though now that I look at it, the 1991 Twins were actually a very good team- I was thinking of the 1987 Twins, who only won 85 games and allowed more runs than they scored. Often, teams that are not all that terrific can win in the postseason if they have two good pitchers who get hot at exactly the right time- see what the Marlins did to the Yankees with Penny and Beckett in 2003, or what the ’87 Twins did with Viola and Blyleven.
The main problem with the Tigers taking it all this year is the fact that they have had trouble with all of the division leaders. Neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox have had much problem with them this season.
Tiny sample sizes so far though 🙂
They remind me a lot of the White Sox last year, where they have four pitchers in Verlander, Bonderman, Robertson and Rogers who give them a chance to win every time out.
So if the playoffs and “World” Series doesn’t determine the best team, why do we bother with them?
And like the White Sox last year, they’re getting great production out of their supporting guys, like Curtis Granderson & Marcus Thames consistently, and bench guys who are clutch, like Craig Monroe. They’ve been fun to watch for a few seasons, now it’s just coming together for them, and all w/o da Meat Hook. It’ll be interesting to see if Young coming back has any effect on the team chemistry. He was hot right away, though.
One more comment about the ’91 Twins. They also went from last place in “90 to first place.
Lets go, Expos!
I wouldn’t mind playing the Twins. We owe them bigtime for ’87.
So if the playoffs and “World� Series doesn’t determine the best team, why do we bother with them?
Why do we bother with baseball at all? Why don’t we just go pick dandelions and play frisbee?
Because people like to watch highly skilled athletes plying their trade, and they really like watching the teams that had the best seasons go at each other at the end to determine which of them can win a seven game series! What, you were expecting Nietzchke? It’s entertainment; the winning team doesn’t get the other team’s clothes. Although the Aztecs used to do that.
“So if the playoffs and “Worldâ€? Series doesn’t determine the best team, why do we bother with them?”
Because the World Series determines the “World Series Champion,” which is exciting, rather than the team statistically judged to be the best getting a form letter, which is not. Especially if your team is not statistically the best, but still has a chance to be “World Series Champion.”
Also you don’t have to put “World” in quotes. We realize it’s not a global championship, it was never intended to be a global championship, and was in fact named for a newspaper, “The World.”
I made a bet with a Tigers fan at the start of the year. Loser of the season series between Detroit and Cleveland has to provide a keg and a bbq at the winner’s house. Cleveland now has to sweep the final 6 games … I don’t have good vibes on this. Fucking Tigers.
as i understand it, the tigers and the twins couldn’t play each other until the second round of the playoffs. maybe they changed that rule, but i know the last couple years the wild card team couldn’t play a team from its own division in the first round. so you guys, if you have the best record, would play the team from the al west, who you would probably slaughter.
The Twins, from a Sox fan perspective, are the scariest team out there, then the Blue Jays.
As far as the Tigers, I’m sold that they’re not a fluke (like the 1st half Orioles from last year), but I’m still not sold on them.
I will say this, the Angels (who will win the AL West), Jays, Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Yanks and Red Sox (The Rangers suck, the A’s mediocre) are all better than any team in the NL, including the Mets.
a team OPS of .675
That’s disgusting. You nearly made me gag, Brad. Seriously.
What? That I can read statistics off Baseball-Reference.com?
Go Cardinals!
I was going to write “GO TWINS!!”, but you dang gliberals would just call them “Twinkies” and tell them to go, alright. We don’t get no respect! You all are just waitin’ for Santana and Liriano to go to the goddam Red Sox, arn’cha!
Twins and Tigers series starting tomorrow in Minneapolis. If the Dinkies stay as hot as they’ve been, it should be a goodie! The Tiges will be facing Liriano, Santana and Radke, the best of the Twins’ rotation. I’ve got butterflies thinking about it.
GO TWINS (or not)!!
Both of those franchises had immensely talented young starting pitchers who matured at the same time, just like what Detroit has right now. The Mets had Seaver and Koosman, the Braves had Glavine, Smoltz and Avery, and the Tigers have Verlander and Bonderman
This is true, but what people don’t realize is the Tigers can, and do, hit. Their offensive stats are diminished, and pitching enhanced, by playing half their games in Comerica Park. The Tigers LEAD THE AMERICAN LEAGUE in runs scored per game on the road, 5.6. Yes, even more than the BoSox.
So if the playoffs and “World� Series doesn’t determine the best team, why do we bother with them?
We didn’t used to, and I’d argue that we shouldn’t. Okay, I’m not really for disbanding the playoffs. But I do think that winning the pennant* over 162 games ought to carry at least as much weight as getting lucky and pulling out a couple of seven-game series.
*The problem, of course, is that since divisional play the pennant for each league is determined by playoff series. Plus the regular season schedule is unbalanced, unlike in the old days.
Hence, my proposal for radically changing baseball:
– Two leagues, National and American, with no divisions and no interleague play
– A balanced schedule in each league
– A “Cup” tournament in each league (a la European soccer league cups), that runs during the course of the regular season, is open to every team (if you wanted to get wild, you could even include minor league teams), and has home-and-away series between teams seeded based on their previous season’s record.
– At the end of the regular season, the “Cup” final, a seven-game series, is played between the teams to emerge from the NL and AL brackets.
The beauty of this is that you get to crown three champions a season – the NL and AL pennant winners (for regular season best-record) and the Cup champion. The pennant winners are rewarded for being the best teams in the biggest sample size possible (162 games), while the Cup itself offers all the drama of the current playoff setup and more besides, because it’s open to all teams and surely there would be Cinderella stories aplenty.
Plus, it would allow us to separate the really GREAT baseball teams from the merely good, season-by-season … because if a team can pull off a pennant AND a cup in the same season, it would be remarkable.
Reminds me of the 84 team, ouch!!!
Tomwashere is right – the schedule is always set up so the wild card team won’t play the winner of its division until the championship series. Tigers will only play the wild card winner if the wild card winner is the Yankees or Red Sox (assuming, that is, that there is no chance of the AL wild card winner coming from the AL West and that the Blue Jays won’t get close enough to it to take the wild card). If the Twins or White Sox take the wild card, and the Tigers finish with the best regular season record, Detroit will play the division winner with the worst record, otherwise known as the AL West winner.
Sorry, I need to change my earlier comment in a different thread:
I hate all American professional sports.
I was going to write “GO TWINS!!�, but you dang gliberals would just call them “Twinkies� and tell them to go, alright. We don’t get no respect! You all are just waitin’ for Santana and Liriano to go to the goddam Red Sox, arn’cha!
I’ve never dared imagine it before, but if it’s a reality you’re willing to embrace, then sure, we’ll take Santana and Liriano off your hands. We’ll even give you Tavarez and Seanez in return. What the hell, we’ll throw in Timlin too (Caution: Do Not Place On Mound With Inherited Runners).
What? That I can read statistics off Baseball-Reference.com?
Hell, naw. What’s disgusting is that an entire team logged an OPS that putrid. I mean, . 675 is bad for an individual player. Just typing that number makes me feel like I’ve walked past a grease bin behind Ruby Tuesday’s on a hot summer day.
I hate people who hate stuff. Doh!
Not really. More than most sports, baseball involves a lot of luck.
This is truly, well, true. What I’ve learned from the last decade and a half watching the Giants consistently be one of the 2 or 3 best teams in the NL for a 162 game season and consistently fail in the playoffs is this: It is a very special team that can be built to win a 162 game season and also be built to win a couple of short series in a row. It really requires two different teams.
The 162 game season is what makes baseball so special. There is really not a great deal of hope for a mediocre or bad team to make the playoffs. The grind of winning the season is a pretty good indicator of the quality of the team.
To win the short series in the playoffs, it comes down to pitching, defense and luck. And, with all the breaks for travel every other day, you don’t need to use more than two or at most three starters. So you have your number 4 starter available for long relief. It really is a different game. And in San Francisco, they haven’t been able to figure out how to build a team that can do both. Although, like Brad said about the Braves, you could make a case that the ’02 Giants were a better team than the Angels. But there ya go, it came down to pitching and luck…
mikey
What the hell, we’ll throw in Timlin too (Caution: Do Not Place On Mound With Inherited Runners).
You got that warning off Armando Benitez’ Uniform, didn’t you?
mikey
although as a closer, he usually doesn’t inherit runners, so he makes his own!!
you could make a case that the ‘02 Giants were a better team than the Angels.
I agree. On paper, I thought that the ’02 Angels were not that impressive. They had a top-notch bullpen, though, and were good defensively. Also, they were on a hot streak, having crushed the Yankees and the Twins on the way to the series.
To win the short series in the playoffs, it comes down to pitching, defense and luck
And David Ortiz. Don’t forget David Ortiz.
the 02 angels were not impressive? nonsense. they probably had the strongest defensive team in recent memory, a solid starting rotation, an outstanding bullpen, and hitters that could put the ball in play.
The Tigers’ success comes as no surprise to Pirates fans, who (if I may speak for all of us), would like our guys back.
No fair!
I need more Coach Dave. His new column is awesome.
http://www.worldviewweekend.com/secure/cwnetwork/article.php?ArticleID=922
So if the playoffs and “World� Series doesn’t determine the best team, why do we bother with them?
They don’t determine who the best team is. They determine who the champion is.
If all we needed were the playoffs and World Series to find out who the best team is, then why bother with the rest of the season?
We realize it’s not a global championship, it was never intended to be a global championship, and was in fact named for a newspaper, “The World.�
Now I know a lot about baseball – especially baseball history – but I did not know this.
We realize it’s not a global championship, it was never intended to be a global championship, and was in fact named for a newspaper, “The World.�
I’d never heard that before either, so I went to Wikipedia, just to see what they had to say. Now I know Wiki’s not necessarily authoritative, but it appears that there is at least some disagreement on this:
mikey
Go Blue Jays!
And to a very early post — it doesn’t matter if the Twins make the playoffs, Francisco Liriano is NOT the MVP. I personally hate giving pitchers the MVP when they impact, at most, 1 out of every 5 games.
I personally hate giving pitchers the MVP when they impact, at most, 1 out of every 5 games.
Maybe so, but how many everyday players can be considered responsible for 18-22 of the teams wins in a season? If a team wins it’s division with 95 wins, and one guy was responsible for, say 20 of them, it doesn’t seem unreasonable for that guy to be the MVP. Or, to look at it from the other side, the only reason the Giants didn’t win the woeful west last year was the blown saves. Something like 27 of them or some gawdawful number like that. So the giants had one or two guys cost them the playoffs. So it’s got to be equivalently true that one guy could not only get them to the playoffs, if he’s a starter, he could make the major contribution to winning it all..
mikey
they have a breeding program for Bengali TIgers in Detroit now?
I think that’s wonderful
If a team wins it’s division with 95 wins, and one guy was responsible for, say 20 of them, it doesn’t seem unreasonable for that guy to be the MVP.
The only way one guy is responsible for 20 wins all by himself is if he throws 20 shutouts. People still have to drive in runs and score runs and not make errors to win games. Who’s more valuable, the guy that has a hand in 20 wins or the guy who plays every day and has a hand in the lions’ share of 95 wins?
I personally hate giving pitchers the MVP when they impact, at most, 1 out of every 5 games.
If we disregard fielding, although the pitcher only appears in one of every five games, he affects 50% of the outcome. The position player who plays in every game affects 11% of the outcome of each. Of course, pitchers leave early…but of course, position players usually don’t play every game, and occasionally come out of a game. So the impact of good, durable starting pitchers and everyday players on the sum total of all of a team’s games is about equal.
Who’s more valuable, the guy that has a hand in 20 wins or the guy who plays every day and has a hand in the lions’ share of 95 wins?
Well yeah, but thats likely a different guy every day. Sure, you got a Pujols or Manny or Bonds, but one night it’s a rookie callup with 5 RBI and the next night it’s a .240 hitting shortstop with a clutch single in the eighth and then some other night it’s Sexson going 1-5 with a HR and 4 strikeouts that wins the game. But every 5 nights, it’s that starter. In the spotlight. Can’t get outta the third? Starters fault. Go 7 and two thirds and give up 2 earned runs? I say the win is the pitchers fault…
mikey
Kobie, mikey, incidentally, there are statistics to actually figure out how much each player contributed to wins, so you don’t have to just kinda make shit up.
On the “World Series” being named for the newspaper, I read it in a source which felt authoritative to me, but I can’t remember what that is, and internet information seems all over the place. Perhaps I will check Historical Baseball Abstract or whatever the hell it’s called.
I’ve been an Angels fan since 1974 and in a history dominated by frustration, this year has been really trying as a fan. The hitting has been good, but the fielding and middle relief, expected to be strengths, have both been nightmares. I just want them to beat out the A’s so I can spend the offseason mocking sabremetrics assholes (the Angels are anti-sabremetrics/Moneyball).
Frankly, I think the Tigers are going to wake up in mid-August, realize that they’re the freaking Tigers and just collapse.
Baseball sucks pooburger juice.
Kobie, mikey, incidentally, there are statistics to actually figure out how much each player contributed to wins, so you don’t have to just kinda make shit up.
Yeah, I understand that. And I put a lot of weight into those stats … however, they are also not airtight. Just because a certain statistic declares David Ortiz to be more valuable than, say, Vernon Wells or Pudge Rodriguez or whoever (even though he is) does not necessarily mean we just hand him the MVP.
jpj isn’t ignorant of baseball, guys. He’s trying to be say, as subtly as possible, “SCOREBOARD.”
yeah, let’s talk about cricket instead!
I say! Raw-ther!
I didn’t mean to say that the ’02 Angels weren’t a worthy team. I actually liked that team quite a bit, because it wasn’t all power and superstars. And actually that’s what I meant. I wouldn’t have expected them to win because they didn’t really have those things. Most teams have some big lunk with a stone glove playing first because he can hit. They had Scott Spezio. And truthfully, I don’t really like MVPs given to pitchers either. I’m sure it’s coincidence, but the Twins really sucked before they put him in the rotation.
And truthfully, I don’t really like MVPs given to pitchers either. I’m sure it’s coincidence, but the Twins really sucked before they put him in the rotation.
The Twins’ turnaround does coincide with Liriano getting in the rotation, as well as several other factors. As a native and resident of Rochester, NY, the home of the Twins’ Triple-A team, it’s been hard not to notice that the more guys that go up to the Twins from the Red Wings, the better they do. It’s been unbelievable. Right now, something like 12 members of the current Twins 25-man roster played for the Wings at some point this season. Minnesota must have the best scouting department in the majors.
To expand on my bitching about the media not knowing that there is baseball outside of New York and Boston: I was watching the ESPN Wednesday night game. Rangers vs. surprise! Yankees. The announcers (some dipshit I didn’t recognize and Eric Karros). Around the second inning I left, while they were talking about A-Rod getting booed. I went out for dinner and a couple of beers. I get back in about the sixth, and they were talking about A-Rod getting booed! I swear it was like they were talking about it for 4 solid innings, and they continued to talk about it. That’s one thing I always loved about Peter Gammons. He puts in enough work to actually know about other teams. The analysis you get from other most other announcers and commentators about any team but the Yankees is skin-deep. Get well soon, Peter.
No you wouldn’t – you never play your own division in the division series. If the Tigers keep the best record in the AL and the Twins or White Sox win the wild card, then the Tigers face the #3 seat (most likely winner of the AL West) in the division series. If however the Yankees or Red Sox (or Blue Jays) win the wild card, Tigers face the wild card team.
I will add, that as an Arizona fan, the Tigers’ 2003 season made the Diamondbacks’ 2004 season slightly bearable. “Hey, we’re not the worst record in the past 2 years” I’d tell people.
yawn.
give me assie rules football any day.
or 3 day cricket matches between India and S. Africa.
now that’s sport!
Kobie, mikey, incidentally, there are statistics to actually figure out how much each player contributed to wins, so you don’t have to just kinda make shit up.
Yer absolutely right. Except you misunderstand the context. This is baseball TALK. You know, guys sitting around, talking baseball. Other than sex, firearms and motorcycles, this IS the topic we can talk about for HOURS on end. Right? So just kinda makin shit up is a BIG part of this. We’re not out to prove or do some kind of academic endeavor. We’re talkin BASEBALL! Facts don’t matter, stats can be approximated, and booze will flow!!
mikey