Are You Smarter Than A Dry Cleaner?
From the smartest lawyer in Minneapolis:
Do you have to be smarter to run a dry cleaning shop than to be President?
A better question: do you have to be smarter than Wile E. Coyote to be a PowerLine blogger?
No one has ever said that Barack Obama is a numbers guy; in fact, his ignorance of mathematics is just one facet of his ignorance of business and economics.
On the other hand, John Hinderaker, Esq., can convert polar coordinates to rectangular coordinates in his head while simultaneously reciting the first hundred digits of pi backwards and calculating the 6.5 percent tip that he’s planning to leave on his lunch check.
Obama lards his speeches with statistical factoids, but they are frequently wrong. For example: he loves to tell audiences that Denmark obtains “20 percent of [its] electricity through wind power.” Sure, Denmark is a flat, windy place, but it still isn’t true.
Actually, Obama says that Denmark “produces” — not “obtains” — 20 percent of its electricity from wind, a not-so-subtle distinction that eludes the steel-trap intellect of Hinderaker and is crucial to his claim that Obama’s “statistical factoids” are wrong.
The Institute for Energy Research explains:
The findings of a new study released this week cast serious doubt on the accuracy of that statement. The report finds that in 2006 scarcely five percent of the nation’s electricity demand was met by wind. And over the past five years, the average is less than 10 percent — despite Denmark having ‘carpeted’ its land with the machines. …
Hey, wait a sec. Obama says wind power is 20 percent of what the nation produces not 20 percent of what it consumes. To see the difference between production and consumption consider this: John Hinderaker, for example, produces, say, twenty percent of the legal services he provides, the other eighty-percent coming from beleaguered associates who spit in his coffee mug when he’s not looking. But he probably consumes zero percent of his legal services, unless he’s stupid enough — and I do not rule this out at all — to act as his own lawyer. You know, fool meet client, client meet fool, etc.
Now let’s follow the link to the study that Hinderaker cites but neglects — I wonder why — to the study in question:
Denmark generates the equivalent of about 19% of its electricity demand with wind turbines, but wind power contributes far less than 19% of the Nation’s electricity demand.
Oopsies. It looks like John just fell on his hinderaker. Obama’s figures are right. Wind power is about twenty percent of Denmark’s entire production, although wind power directly satisfies a smaller percentage of national demand.
Now, let’s give Counselor Hinderaker a little lesson in the magically interconnected power grid, also from the unlinked study and something this buffoon should at least know about if he’s going to call his own often erroneous scribblings the “Power Line” blog.
In the absence of large-scale electricity storage, any modern electricity system must continuously balance electricity supply and demand. … Wind power is stochastic, especially in the very short term (e.g., over any given hour, 30 minute, or 15 minute period). …
Denmark manages to keep the electricity systems balanced due to having the benefit of its particular neighbors and their electricity mix. Norway and Sweden provide Denmark, Germany and Netherlands access to significant amounts of fast, short term balancing reserve, via interconnectors. …
Of course, our lawyer genius friend wants his readers to believe that the wind energy that Denmark can’t use at any moment is just lost into the ineffable aether but, as you’ll see from the rest of the study, Denmark exports momentary excess supply to Norway and Sweden when its turbines are producing more than needed. And Norway and Sweden, in turn, export compensating electricity back to Denmark to meet excess demand when Denmark’s wind turbines are under-producing the necessary amounts.
So if anyone is wrong here, it’s old Butt Scud himself, because his 5 percent figure doesn’t count the wind-generated electricity that is exported and that pays for electricity that is later re-imported back into Denmark. It is truly amazing that folks like Hinderaker who prattle incessantly on and on about the total awesomeness of the free market often know less about the free market than, well, a dry cleaner.
Ouch. That’ll leave a mark.
Yes, and it can be proven that so-called “wind turbines” produce almost zero wind!
Let’s give this genius a nice big plastic dry-cleaning bag to play with and count the minutes until he suffocates himself.
thats quite a photoshop there (hehehe)
Yeah, but he said “stochastic.” That means he’s smart. He must be right.
…The Dunning–Kruger effect is an example of cognitive bias in which…people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it”.[1] They therefore suffer an illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average.
Kruger, Justin; David Dunning (1999)
I’m movin’ on up.
To the East Side.
To a dee-lux apartment, in the sky.
Simple experiment ought to seal the fsactoid for Hinderaker.
Let’s nail him to a piece of wood, and attach a hose to his ass and feed him beans.
He’ll soon understand that he consumes zero percent, but produces one hundred percent, of his natural gas.
It should probably be noted that the group behind the cited study, CEPOS, is a Danish right-wing “think tank” of the Randian variety.
Yeah, but he said “stochastic.” That means he’s smart. He must be right.
He didn’t use the word, the IER did.
Second, he probably thinks the word refers to the book club we all had to join in fifth grade. The Stochastic Book club, where I first read “A Wrinkle In Time”.
If lawyers were required to be that numerate, it’d sure put a dent in the “expert witness” labor pool.
Well, at least Dunning and Kruger haven’t been wanting for examples in the intervening years. Fuck, talk about nailing the zeitgeist.
lawyer genius friend
o/~ Which one of these things is not like the others? Which one of these things just isn’t the same? o/~
This Institute for Energy Research?
Does Assraker take that nifty horse-hair wig to the dry cleaners? If so, perhaps he can quiz the proprietor on differential equations.
Yes, DKW, this IER:
“It is a “partner” organization of the American Energy Alliance, a 501c4 organization which states that it is the “grassroots arm” of IER…. AEA states that its aim is to “create a climate that encourages the advancement of free market energy policies” and in particular ensure drilling for oil is allowed in the Arctic National Wildlife refuse and in US coastal waters.”
Nice one, actor212, 1975-ish? That’s about when I read A Wrinkle in Time courtesy of The Sclerotic Book Club (I thought it was).
I’m not a dry cleaner, but I can do that math that 100% of the dimbulbs that read Arse Nike won’t read this rebuttal (lies round the world, truth still putting on it’s Nike’s and all that). Why bother your beautiful mind when his story is soooo pleasing (fap fap fap…silly Eurolosers, get a 6 MPG Hummer and waste waste waste, Just Like Me or you’re a commie!)
Kinda like the geniuses who would write letters to the Chicago Tribune complaining about coal supposedly being outlawed for fuel when I could look out my window and see mile-long trains full of coal headed to the huge coal-burning generators along the river.
Bigby, older than that. I actually read it in fourth grade. That would have been mid-60s, maybe ’67.
Tintin, I’m liking the new wig motif. Maybe more stockings?
The Stochastic Book club, where I first read “A Wrinkle In Time”.
Well, that was only one realization.
thats quite a photoshop there
Am I sensing the beginning of a theme to rival the potty theme?
Interestingly, wikipedia – that haven for vandals and corporate whitewashing – where all the information posted is as dubious as the half sandwich that even your slovenly room-mate won’t eat – beats both Assrocket and Obama-llama-ding-dong in terms of understanding the issue.
Emphasis mine.
Source document is a 10 meg .pdf that’s loading way too slowly for me.
Capacity is the number everyone should be concerned with. It’s when demand approaches capacity that you get rolling blackouts and Socialesticalicious rationing of electric-ness.
Wind power is intermittent and until EESTOR mass-produces their magical batteries, very poorly stored. This is partially offset by having your wind farms spread out over a large region – so that some turbines will always be out of the doldrums – but you’ll still need peaking capacity.
That’s what solar is for. Peak demand in the US is air conditioner driven. Solar generation just happens to coincide quite nicely with air conditioning demand. Why? It’s a mystery that’ll only be unravelled when I get my research grant.
And that’s why it’s a damn shame that Obama didn’t mention solar power once in the linked speech.
He mentions it five times. Central to my point, that is.
I would like to belong to the Stochastic Book Club, I think.
I would like to belong to the Stochastic Book Club, I think.
I much prefer the Sarcastic Book Club.
Barack Obama: was on the faculty of one of the best law schools in the country.
John Hinderaker: not so much.
*R.I.P.
I used to belong to the Stochastic Book Club, but I never knew when a book was going to show up.
I also used to belong to the Sarcastic Book Club, and it was great! No, really! Just. Fucking. Great.
Then I joined the Spasmodic Book Club. What a bunch of jerks!
Now I belong to the Semantic Book Club, if you know what I mean…
Now I belong to the Semantic Book Club, if you know what I mean…
I tried the condensed version of that, but had no retort.
There’s only one thing Tintin got wrong and that is Hinderaker calculating the 6.5 percent tip that he’s planning to leave on his lunch check.
I very much doubt he tips servers. After all, they are paid the minimum wage and it’s probably too good for them.
Yeah, but you guys aren’t accounting for all the costs of translating the electricity from Denigian into Swedarsi.
I think I used to belong to the Semiotic Book Club, but I was never sure.
(A Wrinkle In Time was about ’72 for me)
“Carpeted with windmills” might be a bit of an exaggeration. True – we’ve got quite a few but not exactly carpeted.
D-KW: Not easily stored … I dunno. Build a bunch of giant Thermo’s and heat the water in them with a suitably gigantic immersible heater powered by excess electricity from the windmills and … voila! Use some sort of heat exchanger to produce steam to drive a steam turbine which in turn drives a generator when the wind takes a break and you’re home free. Even if you’d still have to have some methane powered power plants in reserve for the worst case scenario.
It’s not rocket science but it’ll work just fine. At least as long as it’s possible to distribute power far and away across the grid without a lot of technical and/or “jurisdictional” obstacles. Which would be perfectly doable here in Denmark – don’t know about the US of A.
As far as sunshine goes … there’s a reason we’re more or less world leading in windmill technology rather than solar cells 🙂
there’s a reason we’re more or less world leading in windmill technology rather than solar cells
Doesn’t seem to bother the Germans a whole lot, or are you suggesting those folks demand the sun shine more for them?
That Hinderaker fellow just committed a whale of an Nordlinger.
Build a bunch of giant Thermo’s and heat the water in them with a suitably gigantic immersible heater powered by excess electricity from the windmills and … voila!
If you’re already building gigantic things, why not just build giant flywheels? Rather than convert mechanical => heat => mechanical. Plus, c’mon, FLYWHEELS!
I thought about joining the Semiautomatic Book Club but I never pulled the trigger.
tigrismus – we’re already building great big Thermo’s all around the place. Our NG powered small town/decentralized combined power and heat plants use them for storing excess heat when the power generation (as a side effect) produces more heat than can be sold at the moment.
You can see the Thermo’s (and a 8000 sqm solar panel array for generating heat) on the aerial photo on the front page for Strandby Varmeværk (which is where I live 🙂 ):
http://www.strandbyvarmevaerk.dk/
Why not heat that water with power generated by the wind instead? Yeah there’s some transmission loss but basically so what – the power is free, so who cares? (Not saying there isn’t room for improvement but still – the mere thought of sticking it to the Saudi’s is worth just about anything …)
Actor – the southern parts of Germany is quite a bit more south than Denmark. The sun’s higher on the sky in the summer, better yield . Copenhagen is prox. the same latitude as Edmonton, AB, CA. Ppl tend to forget that 🙂
Ole, I know that, and as a Finn, I know where Denmark is too.
I was just teasing you a little. Germany doesn’t get much more sun than the US (in fact, NYC is at the same latitude as Rome, where solar power actually stands a chance), and lack of sun at least on the east coast of the States is one of the rationales against solar power.
are you suggesting those folks demand the sun shine more for them?
I see what you do there, but you have the wrong 1930s dictator.
If you’re already building gigantic things, why not just build giant flywheels?
Or pump water to a lake at the top of the nearest mountain?
Heheh.
Actor … aaaawwwhhh. Let’s share a casket of vodka some time … as long as you leave your knife at home 😉
I’ve got the Subatomic book club but no good joke for it.
A casket of vodka….NOW you’re talking my language!
I’ve got the Subatomic book club but no good joke for it.
I joined that, but it was awfully strange.
OK, I admit, that was probably a bit too subtle.
Actor, it worked like a charm.
OK, because in truth is there no beauty?
Insert very funny joke about tops and bottoms here….
I like you guys’ quarky sense of humor.
I really liked it’s falvor, too, actor.
I was the first to join the seminal book club. Then some assholes from the seminole book club came and fucked everything up with stone axes.
that would be flavor, and FYWP. You’re just not quick enough.
the seminole book club
DrDick may have contributed to that series.
Wait wait wait waIT WAIT! NO!
I have a better version….
I was the first to join the Seminal Book Club but then the Seminole Book Club said that, really, they were there first.
Yeah, that one’s much better.
[Obama’s] ignorance of mathematics is just one facet of his ignorance of business and economics.
If this is the same Hinderaker who is on record as praising the spellbinding oratorial skills of GW Bush, and criticising Obama for his verbal clumsiness, then evidently he has moved on from the stage of constructing his own reality and is now trying to sell time-shares in it.
Sure, Denmark is a flat, windy place
Much like Assrocket’s head.
And John Hinderaker produces a vast amount of wind, some under his own power but most of it subsidized by his betters and vented through his collection of rubes.
I joined the Seminal Book Club, but they told me to jerk off.
I joined the seminal book club and found religion.
OK, but look, people, Obama is clearly an idiot, because he didn’t tell us how much wind is produced by Denmark’s electricity.
how much wind is produced by Denmark’s electricity.
This gives me an EXCELLENT IDEA for a way that the Danes could save up energy when they have too much generator capacity.
I joined the Semiconductor Book Club but they charged too much.
… & don’t ever join the Hemidemisemiquaver Book Club … way too many notes.
Now see where you’re making your two biggest mistakes is (are?) 1. Only liberals and nerds feel the need to look things up. “Conservatives” and “professionals” just know stuff. It’s technical..
and 2. The stuff that “conservatives” and “professionals” know? It’s right (even when it appears at second glance to be “wrong”) (hey, get it? “right”?) because it just is, that’s all. “God said it, I believe it, that settles it” kind of right (there it is again! it’s a nomen!)