Correlation Causationed Mah Charcoal Grill!

Confederate Yankee reckons that the repetition of the absence of evidence is evidence of something or other that the Obama administration is doing to knock over all of our barbecues:

I’ll repeat that again.

The massive stimulus bill Democrats unanimously voted for has cost America hundreds of thousands of jobs, and Obama wants to leave the option open to do it again.

What’s Bob on about, you ask? Apparently, it’s this chart — which shows the administration’s original projections for the unemployment rate over time, with and without the stimulus package (the blue lines), plus an update with the real unemployment rate as it’s actually played out during the recession (the red dots):

stimulus-vs-unemployment-june-dots

Above: Also, the white space represents the work that Confederate Yankee has done to show that the stimulus has resulted in a net loss of jobs.

Based on the above graph, CY reaches this odd conclusion, apropos of nothing but his fevered imagination:

The red dots, however, are reality, the real numbers that Barack Obama and all the Democrats in Congress would rather ignore. Those bright, red dots represent the hundreds of thousands of Americans that have lost their jobs because Barack Obama and the Democratic Party rammed through a massive stimulus bill that none of them read.

Alternatively, flabber-jabber-floopity-spoont, etc.

 

Comments: 71

 
 
 

Ooooh.

Address my first, libs!

 
 

The massive stimulus bill Democrats unanimously voted for has cost America hundreds of thousands of jobs, and Obama wants to leave the option open to do it again.

Do these people just lie to keep up their chops, or what? Because I can’t see how it’s been Obama’s stimulus plan that has cost all those millions of jobs. WTF?

 
 

I can prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, with charts and graphs that the number of sunspots has a direct correlation with the increase in pirate attacks.

 
 

Things were worse than everyone first thought. Obviously the only conclusion we can draw is that nation-wide hurricanes done been knocking down folks’ grills. Alas, had we but voted for McCain!

 
Galactic Dustbim
 

I can’t see how it’s been Obama’s stimulus plan that has cost all those millions of jobs

Because! Dammit! Just because! And you are french!

 
 

Barack Obama and the Democratic Party rammed through a massive stimulus bill that none of them read

As I said yesterday, when a massive spying bill was rammed through back in October 2001, nobody gave a rat’s ass it hadn’t been read in its entirety either.

But priorities, y’know.

Also POOP.

 
Dragon-King Wangchuck
 

Let’s see if I understand Bobo Wens. Just like how cutting taxes reduces the deficit – spending causes unemployment.

Oh wait. It’s Bobo Wens – so I gotta add something about guns or war. Guns!! War!!! Guns and War!!!!

 
 

On the other hand, no tiger attacks after the stimulus plan.

 
St. Trotsky, Pope-in-Avignon
 

And can George Bush and the objectively pro-tiger Republicans say the same?

Seigfried says “nein!” Or Roy. Which one got eaten again?

 
 

Come to think of it, what ever happened to that 9 month or so “settling in” period we had to give Bush for not responding to FBI/CIA warnings?

Oh, that’s right. IOKIYAR, and the new President is blackity-black statist.

 
 

On the other hand, no tiger attacks after the stimulus plan.

Thank heaven!

 
 

I have to say the section of the stimulus plan that created a corps of middle managers responsible for travelling the country and firing people at random was ill-advised.

 
Dragon-King Wangchuck
 

Shorter Bobo Wens:

Let me tell you about battlefields. And shooting. Guns and War!!!! Oh, and that Obama guy is really bad. How bad? Well let me compare it to something about battlefields. And Guns. And War!!!!

Did I mention War? or Guns? or Battlefields? And that’s why Obama sucks.

Plus Guns!!!! They are the awesomest!!!! War!!!

 
 

It’s like the Laffer Curve, a curve starting and ending at zero, which proves tax cuts pay for themselves.

 
Dragon-King Wangchuck
 

Shark!

Aha! Proof that the Stimulus is working.

 
Galt's Gulch Water Board
 

The flip side of this “reasoning” is that when things begin to improve, it will be due to the valiant resistance of the GOP and wingers, natch.

 
 

Obviously the unemployment numbers include everyone who has gone Galt.

 
 

Staycation perk: No shark attacks.

 
 

Shark!

Tiger shark?

 
 

Previous commenters’ brilliance justifies this in full, I think:

Confederate Yankee: Not a bear in sight. The Bear Patrol must be working like a charm.

Lisa: That’s specious reasoning, Dad.

CY: Thank you, dear.

Lisa: By your logic I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.

CY: Oh, how does it work?

Lisa: It doesn’t work.

CY: Uh-huh.

Lisa: It’s just a stupid rock.

CY: Uh-huh.

Lisa: But I don’t see any tigers around, do you?

CY: Lisa, I want to buy your rock.

 
Dragon-King Wangchuck
 

Staycation perk: No shark attacks.

Not if you live in the shark infested waters of the LottaHungrySharksInTheseHereWaters Sea.

 
 

I predict that Obama’s stimulus plan will cause the scroll troll to post reams of libertarian nonsense and call us all faggy French people.

Address my proofiness, libs!

 
 

There have been 216 attacks in Volusia County since 1882.

OH MY GOD IT’S PRACTICALLY AN EPIDEMIC.

 
 

So… is he saying that Obama’s stimulus plan should have been even bigger? Who knew he’s an even bigger socialist than Obama?

 
Ted the Slacker
 

I blame tea-baggers for the job losses.

 
 

Remember that the “stimulus” bill was chock-full of inert ingredients (i.e., tax cuts, 42 percent of the total) *THOSE* are obviously responsible for the job losses. Look what the previous Republican tax cuts did to the economy…

 
 

soon, bobowens will find and meticulously explain with charts and graphs, how the stimulus is responsible for all those homosexuals who keep sucking on his cock all the time…

 
 

I know I went M.I.A. for a couple of weeks/months, but did I miss the genesis of the Bobo Wens thing?

 
 

“D. Aristophanes said,
Staycation perk: No shark attacks.”

Speak for yourself. I go to the Caribbean to get AWAY from the sharks. Doesn’t that qualify me for a free new grill?

 
Dragon-King Wangchuck
 

the genesis of the Bobo Wens thing?

No. That’s just my pet name for TIDOSY. It’s all Star Wars-y.

 
Innocent Bystander
 

Because we all know a trillion+ spent on an elective war, huge increases in the defense budget, the largest tax cut in history, and lax oversight of the financial markets during the past 8 years had nothing to do with the mess we are in today.

Right, Wankee.

 
NutellaonToast
 

Sounds like it’s time for some intrepid explorer to take a look at some Bush projections and face them with reality. I’m sure no harm can come of that.

Fuck that, let’s look at ANY projection vs reality.

 
Galt's Gulch Water Board
 

Severely OT, but can anybody give any insight on Drudge’s weird crush on Paglia?

 
 

Severely OT, but can anybody give any insight on Drudge’s weird crush on Paglia?

Well, it’s not like she’d ever reciprocate, so maybe he figures she’s a safe beard crush or whatever.

 
Dragon-King Wangchuck
 

Severely OT, but can anybody give any insight on Drudge’s weird crush on Paglia?

Three things.
1. Eeeeuuuuuwwwwww. I just threw up a little in my mouth.
2. Rule 34
3. EEEEUUUUUUWWWWWW. I just threw up a lot.

 
Ted the Slacker
 

Severely OT, but can anybody give any insight on Drudge’s weird crush on Paglia?

He wants her eggs?

 
a different mikey
 

Wow, looking for some laughs about TIDOS and instead get confronted by Drudge on Paglia? Owwww.

 
Galt's Gulch Water Board
 

I dunno, they both seem to think they’re incredibly risky and edgy by cross-referencing each other every time she posts on Salon. I guess Drudge loves her because she loves St Sarah, but man, the cog/diss, it burns.

 
 

Has anyone noticed the source of the graph that Bob is using?

“http:/Innocentbystanders.net – Everything in blue was created by Obama’s economic team”

For your reading pleasure here’s a post from this fellow, to show his intellectual acumen, about Palin’s resignation:

How fucking often does THAT happen?

Look, I’m just spitballin here. Sarah’s move today has handed the left a huge, if somewhat superfluous victory. They feel as if they have defeated her, taken her down.

They are all about the feelings, the goddamn rats.

I don’t pretend to understand her motives. I know she took some hits that were ramped up lately by that Schmidt fucker. And also more on the right, including Krauthammer and Goldberg.

Quality commentary, for sure.

 
 

He wants her eggs?

Okay, that’s some win right there.

 
 

Hmm. Having looked at the numbers (which, though not nearly as much FUN as a hella-kewl graph, give a more complete picture) I can see that about 70% of current US unemployment was actually the handiwork of a non-Obama person … George W. Somebody … you know, that guy who the Goopers all went Judas on as soon as it became apparent that his “Operation Memory Hole” Legacy Project blitz was going to be just yet one more massive clusterfuck, & that he was a big stinking dead albatross around the GOP’s neck … the same good ol’ boy who’s obviously had a major IQ-upgrade since leaving Washington, since he’s generally been smart enough to keep the hell away from cameras not being wielded by adoring soccer-moms – let alone anything with a microphone.

Yet despite this, Corncob Yanker isn’t twice as enraged at ex-President Whatsispickle for all the unemployment he created … IT IS A MYSTERY!

 
Innocent Bystander
 

DBaker said,

July 8, 2009 at 20:37

Has anyone noticed the source of the graph that Bob is using?

“http:/Innocentbystanders.net – Everything in blue was created by Obama’s economic team”

————————————————–

For the record, I have nothing to do with this site. Probably saw my screen name and ripped it off, as the uncreative Right is known to do. Bastids.

 
 

Simba B: I was wondering who Bobo Wens was myself. Then I slid the second “o” in “Bobo” over in front of “Wens” and got “Bob” “oWens” who is a/k/a Cornfed Wanker, Confederate Wankee, TIDOS Fucktard, etc.

These smarty-pantses Sadlys and their clever ruses!

 
Dragon-King Wangchuck
 

…and their clever ruses!

And it’s all Star Wars-y!!! Pew pew! Take that Evil Empire! Pew!

 
 

I was wondering who Bobo Wens was myself.

Not to make you feel non-smarty-pants or anything, but it wasn’t so much that I didn’t know who he was as much as I was wondering if there was a story behind it.

If it makes you feel better, it’s been done before: Cf. Joke Line

It’s one of those jokes that only works once you say it out loud.

 
 

He wants her eggs?

That can only end in a chest-buster scene.

 
Dragon-King Wangchuck
 

…I was wondering if there was a story behind it

But of course!

In the long dark gaps of the space around North Cardooine, in the Outer Rim Territories, sits a malevolent ship. She is the the Millenium Grill, darker than the insides of a Sarlacc pit, save for the brightly emblazoned ensign of the Stainless Banner and her captain is none other than the famous bounty hunter Bobo Wens.

 
 

Staycation perk: No shark attacks

Hmph, I live in the state in which JAWS takes place. We’re so shark-infested, after a big rain you have to tip out all the standing water you find in your back yard, otherwise they get so bad you can’t even go outside.

 
 

Hmph, I live in the state in which JAWS takes place.

This seems to me to be a somewhat dangerous tradition.

 
 

Is it a yearly re-enactment?

 
 

Well, let me just say that no one goes outside without a gun and a spare O2 tank all summer, every summer. And no one EVER accepts a candygram.

 
 

“Wen” is also an archaic term for a sebaceous cyst. Just saying, is all.

Also. Dragon-King Wangchuck said,

Three things.
1. Eeeeuuuuuwwwwww. I just threw up a little in my mouth.
2. Rule 34
3. EEEEUUUUUUWWWWWW. I just threw up a lot.

You’re nearly there. Half the Internet seems to be based on a related principle.
1. ???
2. Rule 34.
3. Profit.

 
 

Hey, give him credit — he says Democratic Party instead of Democrat Party.

by wingnut standards, that practically makes him a cryptocommunist.

 
Xecklothxayyquou Gilchrist
 

Hey, give him credit — he says Democratic Party instead of Democrat Party.

I was gonna say.

I can only wonder why – I assume he’s nodding at civility because of the wiretaps, or whatever.

 
 

1. Eeeeuuuuuwwwwww. I just threw up a little in my mouth.
2. Rule 34

There is porn of Dragon-King Wangchuck throwing up in his mouth?
DO NOT WANT

 
 

Balloon Juice caught some other wingnut – I think at National Review – doing the same crap about two months ago, I think.

 
Dragon-King Wangchuck
 

DO NOT WANT

Are you sure? Don’t you at least want to know if I spit or swallow?

 
 

Alternatively, flabber-jabber-floopity-spoont, etc.

Another typically erudite rebuttal from DA.

YAWWWN

 
 

Obama lackey: stimulus “created” 150,000 jobs
—Purple Avenger

What a relief. Prosperity is just around the corner. A chicken in every pot. The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Now go fetch me a juice box you denialist haters. 150,000 – how’s my ass taste now bitches?

lulz

 
 

To be fair, in an alternative universe where unemployment figures had in fact tracked close to the dark-blue “With Recovery” line, someone would certainly have used a term like “Jobs Created” to describe the gap between it and the light-blue “Without recovery” line.

 
 

The chart is correct. Obama’s administration actually did say there’d be big job losses if no stimulus, and small job losses if stimulus. In reality, even after the stimulus, job losses were far, far worse than Obama’s worst case scenario.

These are facts. You can’t wish them away, simply because you think defending Obama is morally right.

Obama is a TV character, sponsored by Goldman Sachs, whose purpose is to confuse you into spending all your time and energy on the Internet, shadow boxing right wing whack-a-loons, instead of organizing in reality for policies that benefit you.

 
 

The chart is correct. Obama’s administration actually did say there’d be big job losses if no stimulus, and small job losses if stimulus. In reality, even after the stimulus, job losses were far, far worse than Obama’s worst case scenario.

Yes, it’s stunning how badly George fucked things over isn’t it?

 
 

No, owlbear1, it’s stunning how dense you are in blaming Bush for Obama’s inability to make good on his promises.
When will you loons stop blaming Bush? 2048?

 
 

But it is such a shiny false arguement. Which in pomo is all that matters. So what if a false equivalency enables x=y=z=not ? All that matters is the shiny happy opposition to you. Are you arguing when they lie? If you don’t call them on it when they bring it up then that is all that matters. Them is not your beliefs vs. us that of course agree with you. Whatever that means. All I’m saying is argue for the sake of it and the belief of it. If people can not defend the creed against people who don’t give a fuck then it isn’t a creed is it.

 
St. Dragon-St.-King St. Wangchuck St., now with extra St.
 

The chart is correct. Obama’s administration actually did say there’d be big job losses if no stimulus, and small job losses if stimulus.

Stupendously Hideous Unintelligent Troll: Doy, I iz bored. What trollery should I do now?
The Voices: Hey you know how all them lefties kept saying that the stimulus wasn’t big enough and was to packed full of tax cuts? Go harass them!
SHIT: But how?
Voices: Well, clearly they were right again – the Obama Administration underestimated the scope of the damage that de-regulated Wall St. shitbags had foisted upon the world. So it’ll be doubly hilarious for you to tell them that the stimulus didn’t work – something they all knew months ago.
SHIT: Awww yeah. I’ll do it as soon as I finish making poopie!

 
 

“When will you loons stop blaming Bush? 2048?”

It is a serious question if the country will be fully recovered by that point.

BUSH WAS THAT FUCKING BAD!

Stop blaming Bush?

Stop pointing out HIS failures…

Obama’s ‘failure’ was in not seeing how bad a mess George “The Torture-loving baby-murderer” Bush and his chickenshit tongue-jackers had left behind before he made those predictions.

So do go on about how badly Obama is failing to FIX the BUShit.

 
 

mmph! mmpnn! mmmph!

Oh, sorry. I was tea-bagging Limpballs.

What flap jacks said libs!!

 
 

What’s Bob on about, you ask? Apparently, it’s this chart — which shows the administration’s original projections for the unemployment rate over time, with and without the stimulus package (the blue lines)

Uh, no, that’s not what that is.

The chart is from Krugman’s NYT blog, January 10, i.e., from before Obama’s inauguration, much less a time when anyone knew what the stimulus package was going to look like.

Now it’s being passed off as (a) Obama’s and (b) an actual chart of the stimulus plan’s intended effect.

The red dots were added later.

This is a hoax, Aristophanes, which makes it even funnier.

Paul Krugman – Romer and Bernstein on stimulus

OK, Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein have put out the official (?) Obama estimates of what the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan would accomplish. The figure above summarizes the key result.

Kudos, by the way, to the administration-in-waiting for providing this — it will be a joy to argue policy with an administration that provides comprehensible, honest reports, not case studies in how to lie with statistics.

That said, the report is written in such a way as to make it hard to figure out exactly what’s in the plan. This also makes it hard to evaluate the reasonableness of the assumed multipliers. But here’s the thing: the estimates appear to be very close to what I’ve been getting.

The key thing if you want to do comparisons is to note that I made estimates of the average effect over 2009-2010, while they do estimates of effect in the fourth quarter of 2010, which is roughly when the plan is estimated to have its maximum effect. So they say the plan would lower unemployment by about 2 percentage points, I said 1.7, but their estimate may actually be a bit more pessimistic than mine. They have the plan raising GDP by 3.7 percent, but that’s at peak; I thought 2.5 percent or so average over 2 years, again not much difference.

So this looks like an estimate from the Obama team itself saying — as best as I can figure it out — that the plan would close only around a third of the output gap over the next two years.

One more point: the estimate of what would happen to the economy in the absence of a stimulus plan seems kind of optimistic. The chart above has unemployment ex-stimulus peaking at 9 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and coming down through the year; the CBO estimates an average unemployment rate of 9 percent for 2010, so the Obama people are more optimistic than the CBO, and a lot more optimistic than I am.

Bottom line: even if I use the Romer-Bernstein estimates instead of my own — there really isn’t much difference — this plan looks too weak.

 
 

I would’ve liked to have seen a chart on this thread showing Rumsfeld’s predictions for how long the Iraq war would last that includes “bright red dots” that show how long it really lasted.

 
 

Obama’s administration used that chart as a basis to stump for the stimulus. The problem for the left and Obama supporters, is that is has been falsified by reality. We are now worse off with the stimulus than he claimed we would be without it.

 
 

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